Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68a6…e96b sports 406 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,369 (-1%) realized −$1,680 · open −$1,689
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%217W / 186L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$666per market
Trades / day62.1pace
Fees−$4,770est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,003now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,548
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 45% -13.2%
≤30d 179 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 44% -10.8%
≤90d 403 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 51% -8.4%
all 403 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 51% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 51% -8.4%
10% -19.3% 46% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 37% -25.2%
20% -34.2% 30% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$881) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$410 vs −$461 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,003
Realized−$1,680
Unrealized−$1,689
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses217 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$4,770
Open positions3
Markets (closed)403 / 406
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$666
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 56¢ 100¢ $559 $1,000 +$440 (+79%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ 0¢ $1,255 $2 −$1,253 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 25¢ 0¢ $877 $2 −$876 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $867 +$171 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $1,216 +$2,187 +180%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $653 +$7 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $614 +$555 +90%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $1,468 −$1,451 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $966 −$962 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 −$7 -7%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $472 −$472 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,810 −$1,278 -71%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,121 +$351 +31%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $231 +$269 +117%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $780 +$390 +50%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $230 +$270 +117%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $468 +$377 +81%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $867 +$683 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $855 +$34 +4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $425 −$400 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $500 +$134 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,214 +$646 +53%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $280 −$262 -94%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $258 +$45 +17%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 14 $181 −$33 -18%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $310 −$310 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $413 −$413 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $482 −$262 -54%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $450 −$450 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $438 −$438 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 14 $410 −$410 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $175 −$175 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $483 −$342 -71%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,260 +$24 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $769 −$361 -47%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $595 −$514 -86%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $610 −$610 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,539 +$163 +11%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $503 −$103 -20%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $674 −$674 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $421 −$421 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $510 −$510 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 14 $1,287 −$1,229 -95%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $886 −$886 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $577 −$577 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $625 +$600 +96%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $52 +$48 +91%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $360 +$537 +149%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $960 +$540 +56%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $128 −$119 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 65¢ $222 26m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $147 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $33 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $3 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $98 31m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $47 31m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $459 31m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $50 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $100 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $7 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $54 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $46 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $17 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $17 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $310 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $13 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $5 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $160 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $116 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 88¢ $285 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 88¢ $50 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 88¢ $636 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 46¢ $17 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 83¢ $555 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 83¢ $1,876 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ $16 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ $33 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,003.01 · official $1,003.01 (match) · 3500 history records