Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68aa…34fc sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$150 (+5%) realized +$152 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$72
sports 37% +$90
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 41% +0.2%
≤30d 17 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 41% +0.2%
≤90d 17 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 41% +0.2%
all 17 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 41% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 41% +0.2%
10% -16.4% 24% -9.4%
15% -24.5% 24% -18.1%
20% -31.9% 6% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$16 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$406
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $408 $406 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $121 −$18 -15%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +107%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $22 −$7 -29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $405 +$25 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $95 −$40 -42%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $101 −$5 -5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $324 +$124 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $528 −$31 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $314 +$130 +41%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $333 −$20 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $409 1m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $0 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $36 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 83¢ $30 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 79¢ $49 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 80¢ $50 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 36¢ $9 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 36¢ $9 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $30 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $4 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 47¢ $2 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 86¢ $27 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 86¢ $27 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $50 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $7 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 78¢ $5 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $3 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $7 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 56¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $5 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 38¢ $3 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 45¢ $16 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $430 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $405 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 SELL Over 46¢ $13 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.57 · official $405.57 (match) · 67 history records