Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68ae…ffd4 crypto 192 markets active 23h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (227 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,727 (-9%) realized −$3,727 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%85W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day227.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4,168
sports 1% +$13
other 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (227 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 44% -19.1%
≤30d 192 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 44% -19.1%
≤90d 192 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 44% -19.1%
all 192 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 44% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover227.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 44% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 44% -26.9%
15% -35.2% 44% -33.9%
20% -41.5% 44% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$196 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,727
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses85 / 107
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage5d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day227.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions (102 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 −$66 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $140 −$135 -96%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $54 +$35 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $210 −$206 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$163 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $215 +$185 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $97 −$94 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$13 +197%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $386 −$375 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $402 −$389 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $201 −$194 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $205 +$195 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $206 −$202 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $206 −$202 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $206 +$194 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $235 −$228 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $232 +$205 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $225 −$217 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $208 +$194 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $233 −$226 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $407 −$399 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $256 −$252 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $217 +$190 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $226 −$219 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $216 −$211 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $201 −$200 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $81 +$119 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $212 −$207 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $223 +$202 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $210 −$206 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $211 +$187 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $227 +$190 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $217 −$209 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $203 +$197 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $204 +$196 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $216 +$194 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $208 −$204 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $208 +$192 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $199 +$190 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $67 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $140 36h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $54 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $72 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $113 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $151 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $215 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $97 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $231 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $167 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1326 history records