Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x68af…94e1 crypto 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%76W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2
other 1% +$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -5.1% -14.2% 52% 35% -9.2%
≤30d 138 -4.8% -13.9% 52% 35% -9.0%
≤90d 151 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 34% -9.5%
all 151 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 34% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 34% -9.5%
10% -24.4% 26% -18.2%
15% -31.7% 21% -26.1%
20% -38.4% 15% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses76 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage67d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$10 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$9 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$9 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 35h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 433 history records