Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68b2…a397 world 724 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$217 (-5%) realized −$217 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate42%304W / 420L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$248
other 19% −$1
politics 14% −$32
sports 13% +$21
finance 6% +$11
tech 2% +$5
crypto 2% −$1
culture 1% +$10
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -21.0% -28.5% 43% 0% -28.8%
≤30d 70 -18.9% -26.6% 30% 9% -29.4%
≤90d 538 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 29% -15.2%
all 724 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 26% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 26% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 20% -22.9%
15% -30.1% 14% -30.3%
20% -37.0% 12% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses304 / 420
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)724 / 724
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 724 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $281 −$44 -16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $59 −$5 -8%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $9 −$3 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $9 −$4 -45%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 04 $7 −$3 -38%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 04 $9 −$3 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 04 $6 −$3 -48%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 04 $6 −$2 -36%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 04 $73 −$73 -100%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 02 $4 $0 -6%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $6 $0 -3%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -47%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 02 $9 −$2 -19%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 -6%
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $3 $0 +12%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Jun 02 $6 −$4 -70%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +6%
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 23 $4 −$4 -83%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 23 $3 −$2 -64%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 23 $6 −$5 -87%
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? May 23 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? May 23 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $3 +$1 +30%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 23 $4 $0 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $13 −$4 -32%
Kash Patel out by December 31? May 23 $3 −$1 -24%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 23 $17 +$1 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $18 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 23 $3 $0 -9%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 23 $3 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 20 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? May 20 $3 $0 -5%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $4 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 20 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 20 $3 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 20 $9 −$2 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No $0 6m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $0 6m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 47¢ $3 50m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 47¢ $47 50m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 47¢ $52 51m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 44¢ $7 54m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 44¢ $41 54m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 41¢ $47 55m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 41¢ $47 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 41¢ $47 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 40¢ $46 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 35¢ $49 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 34¢ $47 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $42 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 90¢ $16 21h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 21h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 94¢ $7 21h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 95¢ $0 22h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 96¢ $8 22h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 94¢ $14 22h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 72¢ $15 45h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 70¢ $15 47h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 63¢ $14 47h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 61¢ $14 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 60¢ $13 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 63¢ $14 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 16¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records