Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x68b3…97c8 sports 310 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$33 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%107W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$143
14 days+$354
30 days+$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$164
other 14% +$257
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -12.8% -21.1% 39% 39% +17.0%
≤30d 161 +23.7% +11.9% 42% 41% +8.1%
≤90d 270 +7.0% -3.2% 40% 39% -7.8%
all 270 +7.0% -3.2% 40% 39% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 39% -7.8%
10% -12.4% 35% -16.6%
15% -20.9% 32% -24.6%
20% -28.6% 26% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses107 / 163
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions3
Markets (closed)270 / 310
History coverage63d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $46 $59 +$13 (+28%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $33 +$22 +64%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $22 +$16 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 −$5 -25%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$2 -8%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $29 +$12 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $19 +$10 +50%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $12 −$1 -13%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 −$15 -57%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 +$22 +134%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$44 +44%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$14 +276%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $21 +$12 +59%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $49 +$22 +44%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$44 +89%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$26 +67%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $77 −$8 -11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $53 −$17 -33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$20 +186%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +103%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $33 13h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 13h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $22 22h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 To BUY 2¢ $1 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06 BUY 18¢ $5 23h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2 BUY 59¢ $14 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 34¢ $5 47h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 33¢ $5 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 62¢ $18 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 49¢ $5 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegov BUY 45¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8. BUY 16¢ $5 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Panama v BUY 24¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will C BUY 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 52¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 58¢ $12 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.29 · official $64.03 (match) · 621 history records