Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68b7…0193 sports 45 markets active 3d ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-18%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%22W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$10
sports 45% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -19.5% -27.1% 44% 41% -27.9%
≤30d 38 -13.0% -21.3% 50% 47% -19.9%
≤90d 45 -13.4% -21.7% 49% 47% -26.7%
all 45 -13.4% -21.7% 49% 47% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 47% -26.7%
10% -29.2% 40% -33.7%
15% -36.0% 36% -40.1%
20% -42.3% 24% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage76d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $1 +$2 +131%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -24%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 $0 -40%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +162%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +77%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
England vs. Costa Rica: Costa Rica O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +40%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $7 −$5 -76%
Will Barnsley FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CD Leganés vs. Real Zaragoza end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 $0 +34%
Will CD Castellón vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 $0 -20%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $1 $0 +43%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 37¢ $1 3d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 53¢ $1 3d
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 54¢ $1 3d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 63¢ $1 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za SELL Renata Zarazua 99¢ $3 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Renata Zarazua 42¢ $1 3d
Ecuador leading at halftime? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL No 48¢ $1 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Total Corners Odd or Even? SELL Odd 100¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Total Corners Odd or Even? SELL Odd 49¢ $0 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Total Corners Odd or Even? SELL Odd 49¢ $0 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $1 3d
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 3d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $6 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.