Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x68ba…3bde other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 120L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$15
politics 28% −$11
sports 10% +$40
tech 5% −$2
world 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 132 +0.8% -8.8% 9% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×11.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage133d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 27 $241 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $237 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $225 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $158 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $377 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $364 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $196 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $164 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $352 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $439 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $219 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $177 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 09 $370 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $210 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $203 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $376 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $194 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $206 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $401 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $223 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $174 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $236 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $393 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 4d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 4d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 13d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 16d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 20d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $225 29d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $225 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.04 · official $55.04 (match) · 410 history records