Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68ba…8552 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$430 (-33%) realized −$430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$68
other 39% −$500
sports 4% −$50
weather 2% −$29
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -63.1% -66.6% 30% 30% -59.9%
≤30d 10 -63.1% -66.6% 30% 30% -59.9%
≤90d 37 -33.7% -40.0% 41% 35% -46.4%
all 37 -33.7% -40.0% 41% 35% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 35% -46.4%
10% -45.8% 24% -51.5%
15% -51.0% 19% -56.2%
20% -55.8% 16% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$36 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage74d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$14 -95%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 14? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 14? Apr 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 14? Apr 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 14 $33 +$13 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 14 $19 +$14 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 13 $32 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 13 $150 +$125 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 13 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 13 $50 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 13 $40 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 13 $25 +$72 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 11 $9 +$13 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$8 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $15 6d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 70d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 71d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $40 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $33 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $19 71d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $22 71d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 71d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $32 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $97 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $25 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $25 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records