Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68bb…0429 crypto 71 markets active 17h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,115 (+22%) realized +$1,115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 38L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$27
14 days+$496
30 days+$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,019
other 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -26.2% -33.2% 33% 33% -24.3%
≤30d 35 +15.4% +4.4% 43% 43% +12.4%
≤90d 70 +2.4% -7.4% 46% 40% +2.7%
all 71 +3.8% -6.1% 46% 41% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 41% +9.0%
10% -15.1% 39% -1.4%
15% -23.3% 35% -10.9%
20% -30.8% 30% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$41 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage90d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$14 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$6 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $308 +$108 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $208 +$112 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$95 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$56 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$177 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$63 +199%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$23 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $73 +$70 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $47 +$47 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $71 +$25 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 28 $32 −$30 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 26 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 25 $73 +$140 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 25 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 25 $11 +$112 +1055%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 25 $31 −$30 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 25 $31 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 25 $73 +$59 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 25 $72 −$70 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $31 −$30 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 24 $92 −$47 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 24 $72 −$2 -3%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 24 $31 +$26 +83%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 23 $70 +$7 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 23 $11 +$3 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 22 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 19 $21 −$9 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 19 $21 +$18 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 19 $21 +$21 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $43 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $415 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $308 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $320 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $208 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $302 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $159 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $73 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $383 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $94 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $55 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $18 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records