Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68c0…6dcb sports 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,466 (+8%) realized +$1,433 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 57L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,076now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$276
14 days−$55
30 days+$1,454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$1,852
other 16% −$669
world 9% +$225
sports 7% −$57
finance 4% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.0% -10.4% 22% 11% +6.3%
≤30d 62 -26.4% -33.4% 26% 19% +2.9%
≤90d 81 -24.2% -31.4% 30% 21% -0.9%
all 81 -24.2% -31.4% 30% 21% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 21% -0.9%
10% -38.0% 15% -10.3%
15% -44.0% 9% -19.0%
20% -49.4% 6% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$27 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$2,076
Realized+$1,433
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions8
Markets (closed)81 / 89
History coverage67d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $915 $980 +$66 (+7%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $28 $15 −$12 (-45%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 3¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$179 +874%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $19 −$8 -41%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $19 −$4 -23%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $18 $0 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 18 $18 −$2 -14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,066 +$279 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $838 +$366 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$45 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 13 $203 −$103 -51%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 13 $26 −$3 -12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $53 −$27 -51%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $3 −$1 -41%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $1,242 −$315 -25%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fury vs PSYKN Company (BO1) - Asia Pacific League A Jun 11 $1 $0 -33%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $259 −$17 -7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5) Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 19h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 19h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 19h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 19h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 19h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 7¢ $17 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,075.76 · official $2,075.76 (match) · 584 history records