Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68c2…1711
world · 162 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$47,680 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36,391 · open +$4,017
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$332,710
Realized−$36,391
Unrealized+$4,017
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses37 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions170
Markets (closed)87 / 162
Avg bet$7,977
Trades / day83.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 170 History 87 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,383
7 days+$2,654
14 days−$45,796
30 days−$47,446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 82¢ 94¢ $45,100 $51,617 +$6,518 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $52,809 $43,478 −$9,330 (-18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 69¢ 99¢ $22,215 $31,802 +$9,586 (+43%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 78¢ $15,000 $23,265 +$8,265 (+55%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $18,128 $22,799 +$4,672 (+26%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $9,404 $10,609 +$1,205 (+13%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 69¢ 78¢ $9,143 $10,255 +$1,112 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 8¢ 19¢ $3,059 $7,172 +$4,113 (+134%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $15,000 $6,735 −$8,265 (-55%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $7,181 $5,992 −$1,189 (-17%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 32¢ $9,668 $5,789 −$3,879 (-40%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 16¢ 52¢ $1,711 $5,775 +$4,064 (+237%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $5,878 $4,948 −$930 (-16%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $4,450 $4,867 +$418 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $6,258 $4,742 −$1,516 (-24%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 56¢ $4,575 $4,155 −$420 (-9%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? No 47¢ 98¢ $1,586 $3,292 +$1,706 (+108%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $4,946 $3,217 −$1,729 (-35%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2,071 $2,797 +$726 (+35%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 67¢ 98¢ $1,895 $2,757 +$862 (+45%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2,567 $2,592 +$25 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 5¢ 88¢ $146 $2,471 +$2,325 (+1592%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 31¢ 60¢ $1,235 $2,374 +$1,139 (+92%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1,939 $2,280 +$341 (+18%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No 91¢ 95¢ $1,793 $1,871 +$78 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $725 +$26 +4%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $201 +$4 +2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $844 +$378 +45%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $319 +$51 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $21,134 +$4,906 +23%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 10 $118 +$23 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $116 −$116 -100%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $308 +$111 +36%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 09 $218 +$31 +14%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 22, 2026? Jun 08 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2,725 −$2,725 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Jun 03 $7,237 −$3,136 -43%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $565 +$282 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? Jun 03 $8,374 +$6,307 +75%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 03 $600 +$2,917 +486%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 03 $21 +$131 +630%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? Jun 03 $136 −$110 -81%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 03 $12,487 +$8,976 +72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Jun 03 $1,883 +$1,943 +103%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 03 $1,173 −$210 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? Jun 03 $15,377 −$2,553 -17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $144 −$144 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 03 $323 −$323 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 03 $456 −$456 -100%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $995 −$995 -100%
Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 03 $355 −$355 -100%
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 03 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 20 Jun 03 $45 −$45 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $14,801 −$1,809 -12%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 03 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 03 $330 −$330 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 03 $1,242 −$1,242 -100%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 03 $246 −$246 -100%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 03 $400 −$400 -100%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 03 $876 −$876 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 03 $1,553 −$1,553 -100%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May Jun 03 $228 −$228 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $1,122 −$1,107 -99%
Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $137 −$137 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $48,468 −$10,335 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 03 $15,897 −$13,921 -88%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $6,948 −$6,592 -95%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Jun 02 $156 +$53 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% −$57,916
politics 32% +$9,507
other 8% +$13,297
finance 3% +$3,700
economics 1% −$597
tech 0% +$54
sports 0% −$191
crypto 0% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $258 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $208 3h
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 BUY Yes 4¢ $44 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $101 11h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 4¢ $16 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $585 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $185 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $32 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $3,057 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $311 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,047 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $715 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,172 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,280 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,281 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,933 13h
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int BUY No 98¢ $201 13h
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell BUY No 96¢ $725 13h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 32¢ $0 14h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 32¢ $0 14h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 32¢ $41 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $886 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3,839 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $61 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 14h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY Yes 4¢ $8 14h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 23¢ $97 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $129 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $2,735 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.8% -21.1% 73% 55% -0.5%
≤30d 83 -0.6% -10.1% 41% 34% -19.0%
≤90d 87 -0.5% -10.0% 43% 34% -16.4%
all 87 -0.5% -10.0% 43% 34% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover83.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 34% -16.4%
10% -18.6% 26% -24.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.4% 21% -31.7%
20% -33.7% 15% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332,710.03 · official $332,883.96 (match) · 3500 history records