Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68c8…1736 sports 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$73 (-2%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%63W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193
7 days−$161
14 days−$161
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$218
sports 18% −$81
other 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +6.7% -3.4% 49% 45% -14.9%
≤30d 77 +6.7% -3.4% 49% 45% -14.9%
≤90d 139 -6.1% -15.1% 45% 39% -17.8%
all 139 -6.1% -15.1% 45% 39% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 39% -17.8%
10% -23.2% 35% -25.7%
15% -30.6% 29% -32.9%
20% -37.4% 21% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses63 / 76
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage79d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Cassone Murphy Cassone 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $305 −$67 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $306 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $309 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $205 +$105 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $128 +$50 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $204 −$55 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $209 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $259 −$125 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $129 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $77 +$67 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $72 −$17 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 +$20 +117%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $20 −$16 -79%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -47%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 20 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $9 +$8 +90%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$7 +365%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $5 +$8 +152%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $3 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $143 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $361 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $310 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $137 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.86 · official $9.86 (match) · 320 history records