Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
68 0x68c8…942d other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$901 (+31%) realized +$748 · open +$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +192% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +165% what you keep after slip
Net edge+165%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$467
7 days+$927
14 days+$833
30 days+$833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$807
sports 13% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+164.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +241.7% +209.1% 67% 67% +35.3%
≤30d 11 +192.4% +164.6% 64% 64% +22.0%
≤90d 11 +192.4% +164.6% 64% 64% +22.0%
all 11 +192.4% +164.6% 64% 64% +22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +164.6% 64% +22.0%
10% +139.3% 64% +10.3%
15% +116.1% 55% -0.4%
20% +95.0% 45% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +192% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$115 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized+$748
Unrealized+$153
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage10d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 74¢ $200 $317 +$117 (+59%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $93 $129 +$36 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $607 +$410 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $809 +$207 +26%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$182 +1770%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$141 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$126 +42%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $222 −$220 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $201 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $607 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 62¢ $386 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $96 9d
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC BUY Fakers 68¢ $222 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.19 · official $446.19 (match) · 24 history records