Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68c8…b100 world 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$13
14 days+$24
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$58
other 19% −$21
crypto 10% +$13
sports 1% −$35
finance 1% −$10
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -10.3% -18.8% 48% 24% -10.1%
≤30d 43 -11.6% -20.0% 47% 30% -10.3%
≤90d 70 -4.1% -13.3% 49% 27% -9.4%
all 70 -4.1% -13.3% 49% 27% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 27% -9.4%
10% -21.6% 17% -18.1%
15% -29.1% 16% -26.0%
20% -36.1% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage56d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 18 $253 −$5 -2%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 18 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $150 −$10 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $55 −$4 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $279 +$41 +15%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $105 +$8 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $30 −$9 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$9 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $188 −$57 -30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $250 +$53 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $170 +$45 +26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $46 −$17 -36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $150 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $119 −$35 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $19 +$24 +123%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $25 +$10 +40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $18 +$9 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$8 -78%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$2 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$6 +52%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $111 −$14 -13%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $330 +$38 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $21 +$10 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $228 −$16 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $20 −$10 -52%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $16 −$12 -76%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 18 $100 +$17 +17%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $20 +$9 +45%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $34 −$14 -42%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 10 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? May 07 $25 +$2 +8%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 69¢ $231 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 68¢ $233 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 66¢ $52 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $31 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 76¢ $99 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $51 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 63¢ $50 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 77¢ $100 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 36¢ $17 18h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $55 22h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 30¢ $30 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 23h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $51 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 23h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 24h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 24h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 6¢ $4 24h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 8¢ $5 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $43 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 27h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.18 · official $84.18 (match) · 291 history records