trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 17¢ | 46¢ | $450 | $1,232 | +$782 (+174%) |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | $447 | $508 | +$60 (+13%) |
| Will another company be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $86 | $0 | −$86 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 19 | $1,490 | −$187 | -13% |
| Will another company be accused of insider trading? | Feb 26 | $86 | −$86 | -100% |
| Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi? | Oct 08 | $58 | +$35 | +60% |
| Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi? | Oct 08 | $170 | −$127 | -75% |
| Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi? | Oct 08 | $98 | −$46 | -46% |
| Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi? | Oct 08 | $174 | −$7 | -4% |
| Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi? | Oct 08 | $371 | −$31 | -8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 1 | -12.6% | -20.9% | 0% | 0% | -20.9% |
| all | 7 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 14% | 14% | -26.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.5% | 14% | -26.1% |
| 10% | -39.9% | 14% | -33.2% |
| 15% | -45.7% | 14% | -39.6% |
| 20% | -51.0% | 14% | -45.5% |