Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68cb…30ca sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$695 (-28%) realized −$631 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$734
other 12% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -33.5% -39.8% 32% 32% -45.0%
≤30d 25 -33.5% -39.8% 32% 32% -45.0%
≤90d 25 -33.5% -39.8% 32% 32% -45.0%
all 25 -33.5% -39.8% 32% 32% -45.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 32% -45.0%
10% -45.6% 24% -50.3%
15% -50.9% 20% -55.1%
20% -55.7% 16% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$80 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized−$631
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions9
Markets (closed)25 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 38¢ $122 $117 −$5 (-4%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 28¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $61 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Under 25¢ 24¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 74¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 31¢ 30¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 18¢ $58 $54 −$5 (-8%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 6¢ $62 $8 −$54 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $67 +$107 +158%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $75 +$105 +140%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $133 −$133 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $80 +$107 +134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $77 +$32 +42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $82 +$266 +325%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +31%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $77 +$14 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $60 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $62 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $63 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $63 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $63 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $63 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $58 8h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $60 8h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $62 8h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $62 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $65 11h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $67 11h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $67 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 34¢ $67 18h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $71 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $73 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $75 30h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $77 30h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $79 42h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $76 42h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $133 42h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $80 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $80 47h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $77 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $77 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $77 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $79 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $81 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 25¢ $80 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $81 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.96 · official $543.03 (match) · 61 history records