trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 60% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 35% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 35% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 26 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 54% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.3% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -18.9% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -26.7% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.9% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | No | 65¢ | 66¢ | $40 | $41 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 61¢ | 66¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 25 | $44 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 23 | $77 | $0 | -0% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $62 | +$1 | +1% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $79 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 05 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $2 | −$1 | -42% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 28 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 28 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $43 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $37 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? | Jun 24 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | Jun 12 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jaime Mulet win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 08 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Jun 08 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $9 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 22 | $11 | $0 | +2% |