Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:20:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68cf…c4a9 crypto 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$106 (-7%) realized −$109 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$22
14 days−$62
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$12
crypto 30% +$5
world 27% −$97
sports 6% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -67.9% -70.9% 12% 12% -0.4%
≤30d 12 -51.2% -55.9% 17% 17% -24.1%
≤90d 40 -8.6% -17.3% 28% 28% -36.2%
all 71 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 35% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 35% -16.3%
10% -19.2% 30% -24.3%
15% -27.0% 28% -31.6%
20% -34.2% 27% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)71 / 76
History coverage104d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 31¢ 36¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $131 +$80 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 29 $5 +$12 +228%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 11 $5 +$9 +170%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 11 $5 +$5 +101%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 03 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 03 $4 −$4 -96%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $5 +$10 +197%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $1 +$9 +905%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 10 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$19 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$9 -94%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$5 +251%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 23 $11 +$12 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $10 +$32 +316%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $11 +$30 +270%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 20? Mar 20 $106 +$25 +24%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $10 −$7 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $29 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $1 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 8d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 10¢ $1 8d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 23¢ $5 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 23d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 23d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 36d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 36d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 36d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.16 · official $47.16 (match) · 153 history records