Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68cf…8cf8
weather · 784 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$578 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$577 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$577
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses135 / 635
Open positions6
Markets (closed)770 / 784
History coverage92d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 770 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$20
14 days+$30
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 29? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 3? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 2? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 19? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 18? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 15? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on April 7? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on April 7? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 28? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 1? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 17? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 20? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 10? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 23? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 16? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$8 +733%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $0 +$8 +1809%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 +$10 +1011%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 4? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 3? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 4? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 +$8 +809%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 25? Jun 01 $1 +$4 +426%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? Jun 01 $1 +$14 +1567%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 29? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 28? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 29? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 27? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 27? May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 25? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 23? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 22? May 23 $1 +$12 +1150%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 23? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 24? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 21? May 22 $1 +$6 +567%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$578
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 38h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +185.5% +158.3% 25% 25% +130.5%
≤30d 62 +66.7% +50.8% 16% 16% +18.5%
≤90d 731 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 18% -30.7%
all 770 -5.5% -14.5% 18% 17% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 17% -33.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 17% -39.6%
15% -30.2% 16% -45.4%
20% -37.0% 16% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.86 · official $6.86 (match) · 2977 history records