Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68d0…b4da other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,988 (-74%) realized −$8,974 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 50L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$946
7 days+$946
14 days+$946
30 days+$946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$7,463
sports 29% −$666
politics 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$8
world 0% $0
finance 0% −$18
tech 0% −$8
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +66.9% +51.0% 50% 50% +107.9%
≤30d 4 +66.9% +51.0% 50% 50% +107.9%
≤90d 61 -23.0% -30.3% 18% 13% -71.7%
all 61 -23.0% -30.3% 18% 13% -71.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 13% -71.7%
10% -37.0% 11% -74.4%
15% -43.1% 11% -76.9%
20% -48.6% 10% -79.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$208 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$8,974
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage56d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 16¢ 14¢ $82 $73 −$9 (-11%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $153 +$316 +206%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $334 +$873 +261%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $69 −$67 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $179 −$175 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 09 $1,000 −$977 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2,415 −$2,377 -98%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 1 Chelsea FC? May 09 $42 −$41 -97%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 0 Chelsea FC? May 09 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $914 −$900 -98%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $130 −$128 -98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $154 −$150 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,396 −$1,380 -99%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $642 −$625 -97%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $1,279 −$1,250 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,417 −$1,403 -99%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC? May 03 $53 −$51 -97%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 3 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC? May 03 $56 −$54 -97%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 1 Crystal Palace FC? May 03 $53 −$51 -97%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? May 03 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $111 −$110 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 02 $17 −$8 -48%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $16 −$3 -16%
Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? May 02 $18 −$3 -16%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 02 $14 −$2 -13%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 02 $10 −$1 -10%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Apr 30 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $455 +$1,028 +226%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 29 $18 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Apr 29 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $10 $0 -4%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Apr 29 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? Apr 29 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Apr 29 $1 $0 -6%
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele Apr 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Apr 29 $10 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 29 $15 $0 -2%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Apr 29 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $17 $0 -0%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Apr 29 $19 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Apr 29 $18 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 29 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $17 +$8 +49%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 29 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 29 $358 −$358 -100%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Apr 29 $10 −$1 -5%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Apr 29 $11 $0 -4%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Apr 29 $11 $0 -4%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 28 $15 +$14 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $69 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes $51 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 18¢ $53 16h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $153 16h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY 26¢ $3 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY 27¢ $331 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $69 39h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $179 39h
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 38d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $994 38d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 39d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,408 39d
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 1 Chelsea FC? BUY Yes $42 39d
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 0 Chelsea FC? BUY Yes $45 39d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $914 39d
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 43¢ $130 42d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,396 42d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 43d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 11¢ $638 43d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,279 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,415 44d
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 44d
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 3 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC? BUY Yes 12¢ $56 44d
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 1 Crystal Palace FC? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 45d
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 45d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 46d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 44¢ $109 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.67 · official $118.67 (match) · 129 history records