Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
68 0x68d2…d067 other 13 markets active 2d ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23,308 (+25%) realized +$23,732 · open −$424
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$7,072per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$9,941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6,654
14 days−$6,654
30 days−$12,115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$14,951
sports 9% +$4,122
politics 6% +$2,195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -50.1% -54.9% 33% 33% -41.1%
≤30d 5 -42.4% -47.9% 40% 40% -43.3%
≤90d 9 +6.5% -3.7% 56% 56% +14.6%
all 9 +6.5% -3.7% 56% 56% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 56% +14.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 56% +3.7%
15% -21.3% 56% -6.4%
20% -29.0% 33% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,287 vs −$4,936 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$9,941
Realized+$23,732
Unrealized−$424
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage71d
Avg bet$7,072
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5,386 $5,349 −$37 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $3,006 $2,921 −$85 (-3%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 58¢ $1,567 $1,396 −$171 (-11%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 36¢ $406 $276 −$130 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $4,699 −$4,699 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 18 $6,077 −$6,077 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $8,304 +$4,122 +50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7,845 −$7,656 -98%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $5,703 +$2,195 +38%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $28,552 +$22,680 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 11 $9,000 +$6,859 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 08 $7,102 −$1,310 -18%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4,200 +$5,578 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 58¢ $4,699 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 57¢ $3,039 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 57¢ $3,038 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 79¢ $12,426 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 52¢ $8,304 3d
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $412 3d
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $519 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $389 3d
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $155 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $5,042 3d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $45 3d
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $909 3d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 3d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $36 3d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,921 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $58 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,639 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 18¢ $6,148 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $7,832 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $66 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $5,910 69d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 69d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $9,000 69d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $360 70d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5,343 70d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $8,692 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $141 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $2,875 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,941.18 · official $9,903.77 (match) · 104 history records