Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
68 0x68d6…a4b6 crypto 514 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$844 (-6%) realized −$843 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%214W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$731
7 days−$763
14 days−$779
30 days−$669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,332
sports 0% −$15
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -21.4% -28.9% 29% 26% -40.1%
≤30d 229 -18.6% -26.4% 33% 31% -27.9%
≤90d 427 -22.3% -29.7% 34% 29% -28.4%
all 513 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 33% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 33% -18.6%
10% -31.9% 26% -26.4%
15% -38.5% 21% -33.5%
20% -44.5% 17% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$843
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses214 / 299
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)513 / 514
History coverage231d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $69 −$12 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $147 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$7 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $64 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $44 −$18 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $131 −$21 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $165 −$81 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $90 +$27 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $89 +$32 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $116 −$88 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $72 +$39 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$9 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 2242 history records