Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
68 0x68d7…9e04 sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$244 (-4%) realized −$266 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate87%46W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$383
14 days−$337
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$20
other 19% −$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -7.7% -16.5% 85% 9% -17.1%
≤30d 52 -1.6% -10.9% 87% 13% -14.5%
≤90d 53 -0.2% -9.7% 87% 15% -13.3%
all 53 -0.2% -9.7% 87% 15% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 15% -13.3%
10% -18.4% 4% -21.6%
15% -26.3% 4% -29.1%
20% -33.5% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$96 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$562
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses46 / 7
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage114d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $300 $323 +$23 (+8%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $129 $128 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Netherlands 93¢ 92¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $114 +$6 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $111 +$9 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $110 +$4 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $97 +$15 +16%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $104 +$5 +5%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 19 $95 +$2 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $95 +$9 +10%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $90 +$4 +5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $91 +$5 +5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $167 +$14 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $157 +$10 +6%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $150 +$8 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $143 +$7 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $141 +$2 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $133 +$8 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 −$111 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $105 +$8 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $108 +$7 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 +$10 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $97 +$6 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $179 +$15 +8%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $171 +$9 +5%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $170 +$8 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $129 +$5 +4%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $199 +$8 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $128 +$15 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $243 +$15 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $219 +$23 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $217 −$217 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $209 +$8 +4%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$9 -45%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $188 +$14 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $209 +$6 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $189 +$20 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $118 +$5 +4%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $109 +$7 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $109 +$9 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $63 +$7 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $63 +$5 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $83 +$3 +4%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 +$5 +15%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $61 +$4 +7%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $35 +$3 +7%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 02 $33 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $129 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 93¢ $111 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $114 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $110 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $111 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $113 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $109 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $97 17h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Morocco 98¢ $97 17h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $104 17h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 17h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $95 18h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Morocco 96¢ $95 18h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $95 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $96 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $91 30h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY United States 95¢ $90 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $167 39h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $167 39h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $157 40h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $158 40h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 95¢ $150 41h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 41h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $143 42h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $143 42h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $141 43h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $141 43h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $133 45h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $308 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.61 · official $561.61 (match) · 227 history records