Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68da…37b5 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$262 (+5%) realized +$276 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%39W / 28L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$103
14 days−$70
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$221
other 4% −$35
world 2% −$101
crypto 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -12.3% -20.6% 45% 42% -14.8%
≤30d 67 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 48% -6.5%
≤90d 67 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 48% -6.5%
all 67 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 48% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 48% -6.5%
10% -19.9% 46% -15.5%
15% -27.6% 39% -23.6%
20% -34.7% 28% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$44 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$276
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses39 / 28
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage17d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season 9z Team 44¢ 33¢ $56 $42 −$14 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $55 +$1 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $84 −$83 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $49 +$35 +72%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $81 +$53 +65%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $47 −$3 -6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $79 +$27 +34%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $47 +$25 +53%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $59 +$25 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$4 -8%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $60 +$50 +83%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $31 +$18 +60%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $99 +$82 +83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $17 +$36 +207%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $187 +$61 +33%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $117 −$56 -48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $49 +$46 +94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $51 +$102 +200%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $53 +$38 +71%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $26 +$22 +86%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $25 −$19 -76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $45 +$55 +123%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $91 +$14 +15%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $57 −$19 -33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $89 +$23 +25%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $140 +$33 +24%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $63 +$26 +41%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $45 +$38 +85%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $55 −$54 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $119 −$117 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $86 −$18 -21%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $66 +$6 +9%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $128 +$2 +2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $126 +$3 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $30 +$46 +156%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $20 −$19 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $123 +$12 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 44¢ $57 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 31¢ $57 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 29¢ $55 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $84 42h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $12 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $4 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $4 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $1 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $2 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $1 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $20 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $1 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $34 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $4 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $4 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $49 45h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 22¢ $43 45h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 75¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 75¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 33¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 53¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 49¢ $39 2d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 19¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 18¢ $20 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 16¢ $23 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $44 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $47 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 47¢ $106 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.79 · official $41.79 (match) · 202 history records