Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68db…dc40 crypto 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+3%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate78%138W / 40L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$7
14 days−$1
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.5% -5.5% 62% 62% -11.1%
≤30d 152 +5.2% -4.8% 78% 59% -7.5%
≤90d 178 +3.6% -6.3% 78% 57% -8.1%
all 178 +3.6% -6.3% 78% 57% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 57% -8.1%
10% -15.2% 26% -16.9%
15% -23.4% 8% -24.9%
20% -30.9% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses138 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage40d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$4 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 439 history records