Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68db…44f0
weather · 566 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$249 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$186 · open −$63
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses407 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)563 / 566
History coverage54d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day62.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 563 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$157
14 days+$487
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? No 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? No 73¢ 0¢ $343 $0 −$343 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8? No 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 2? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on May 5? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 28? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 4? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27? No 72¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 22? No 89¢ 0¢ $417 $0 −$417 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? No 88¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $462 $0 −$462 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 26? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $43 +$77 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $232 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$30 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $73 +$65 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $85 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,231 −$10 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $956 +$38 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $963 −$13 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $573 +$98 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $442 −$141 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $76 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $41 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $128 +$27 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 −$35 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$48 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $603 −$53 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$8 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $220 −$81 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $91 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $379 +$29 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $107 −$8 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $105 −$27 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $186 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $82 +$18 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$4 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 +$95 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $44 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 09 $98 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $27 −$20 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $169 +$15 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 09 $256 +$14 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $344 +$48 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $497 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $147 −$61 -42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $162 +$38 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $122 −$122 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $413 +$39 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $37 −$23 -61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $483 +$10 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 08 $176 +$24 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$573
politics 1% −$210
world 0% −$574
other 0% −$28
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $244 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 72¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $138 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $95 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $69 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $24 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $27 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -3.5% -12.6% 59% 28% -8.6%
≤30d 285 -8.7% -17.4% 66% 19% -9.6%
≤90d 563 -3.4% -12.6% 72% 18% -9.6%
all 563 -3.4% -12.6% 72% 18% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 18% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 7% -18.2%
15% -28.6% 5% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.63 · official $2.63 (match) · 3500 history records