Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
68 0x68de…608b other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,473 (+19%) realized −$809 · open +$2,282
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$961per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$2,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$3,813
sports 1% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -12.6% -20.9% 60% 60% +5.4%
≤30d 6 -3.5% -12.7% 67% 67% +9.1%
≤90d 7 +6.7% -3.5% 71% 71% +12.9%
all 7 +6.7% -3.5% 71% 71% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 71% +12.9%
10% -12.7% 71% +2.1%
15% -21.1% 71% -7.8%
20% -28.9% 14% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$437 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$2,282
Realized−$809
Unrealized+$2,282
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage54d
Avg bet$961
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 81¢ $0 $2,282 +$2,282 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,342 +$558 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $947 +$453 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $770 −$770 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $106 −$104 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,226 +$586 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $873 +$363 +42%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $500 +$342 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,922 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,342 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $947 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $121 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $647 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $106 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,226 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $873 11d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 93¢ $842 53d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 55¢ $500 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,281.72 · official $2,282.00 (match) · 17 history records