Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x68e0…17ab weather 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$280 (+23%) realized +$360 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% −$237
other 41% −$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-74.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -71.4% -74.1% 20% 0% -57.6%
≤30d 5 -71.4% -74.1% 20% 0% -57.6%
≤90d 5 -71.4% -74.1% 20% 0% -57.6%
all 5 -71.4% -74.1% 20% 0% -57.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.1% 0% -57.6%
10% -76.6% 0% -61.7%
15% -78.9% 0% -65.4%
20% -80.9% 0% -68.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$95 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$360
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? No 77¢ 66¢ $165 $140 −$25 (-15%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $59 $52 −$7 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $52 $7 −$45 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C on June 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $352 −$131 -37%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $87 −$85 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 23 $247 −$161 -65%
Will the highest temperature in London be 41°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Jun 22 $246 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.40 · official $199.40 (match) · 16 history records