trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 25% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 17% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -14.8% | -22.9% | 14% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 21 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 48% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.5% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -21.8% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -29.3% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -36.3% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-70%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $98 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 10 | $20 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 10 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Matteo Berrettini win Wimbledon 2025? | Mar 31 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? | Apr 26 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 25 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 25 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 22 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Apr 22 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? | Apr 19 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof | Apr 17 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | Apr 17 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | -0% |