Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:29:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68e2…30ac
other · 71 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$282 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$234 · open −$59
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$192
Realized−$234
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses2 / 48
Open positions44
Markets (closed)50 / 71
History coverage18d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day189.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 44 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$108
14 days−$134
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $47 $71 +$24 (+50%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+150%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 -5%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -25%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$6 -61%
Will NRG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$6 -40%
Will Sharks win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 03 $8 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jun 03 $1 $0 -4%
Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Thunder downunder win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will SINNERS win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $34 −$16 -48%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $6 $0 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $3 −$2 -51%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on May 29 $9 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on May 29 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $14 +$8 +53%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $10 −$4 -41%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 27 $6 −$4 -60%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $200 −$91 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 48% −$131
other 33% −$29
politics 16% −$33
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -81.2% -83.0% 0% 0% -83.8%
≤30d 50 -59.2% -63.1% 4% 4% -78.6%
≤90d 50 -59.2% -63.1% 4% 4% -78.6%
all 50 -59.2% -63.1% 4% 4% -78.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover189.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.1% 4% -78.6%
10% ← realistic here -66.6% 4% -80.7%
15% -69.9% 4% -82.6%
20% -72.8% 4% -84.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.27 · official $192.27 (match) · 3500 history records