Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
68 0x68e3…78e6 other 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$90 (+0%) realized +$96 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 55L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 61% −$14
politics 19% −$11
other 18% +$7
sports 1% +$105
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +4.0% -5.9% 11% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 59 +8.7% -1.6% 24% 17% -7.8%
all 72 +7.1% -3.1% 24% 14% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 14% -9.1%
10% -12.4% 14% -17.8%
15% -20.9% 14% -25.8%
20% -28.6% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage596d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $112 $112 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 44¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $11 +$8 +79%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $70 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $162 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $169 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $176 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $181 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $166 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $167 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $169 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $361 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 25 $169 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $366 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $172 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $175 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $167 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $177 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $14 +$11 +76%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $15 +$11 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 16m
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $6 26h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $23 3d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 11d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 55¢ $11 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 16d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 18d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.49 · official $161.49 (match) · 298 history records