Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68e3…109b crypto 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,027 (-6%) realized −$1,332 · open −$695
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%51W / 66L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$473
7 days−$225
14 days−$2,409
30 days−$3,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$2,237
sports 16% −$1,313
other 3% −$249
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -8.3% -17.0% 55% 53% -10.6%
≤30d 109 -20.7% -28.2% 45% 43% -17.9%
≤90d 117 -23.0% -30.3% 44% 42% -17.9%
all 117 -23.0% -30.3% 44% 42% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 42% -17.9%
10% -37.0% 38% -25.8%
15% -43.1% 32% -32.9%
20% -48.7% 28% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$207 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,332
Unrealized−$695
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses51 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage31d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Over 5¢ 0¢ $97 $1 −$96 (-99%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $600 $1 −$599 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $436 +$390 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$181 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $206 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $206 −$27 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$207 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$178 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$185 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $173 +$147 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $209 −$205 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $799 −$774 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1,032 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1,115 −$80 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1,114 +$383 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $774 −$750 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $517 +$365 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $261 −$249 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1,031 +$762 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $261 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $683 −$580 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $259 +$32 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $516 +$369 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $518 +$522 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $521 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $618 +$166 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $169 −$160 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $302 +$323 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $488 +$317 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $455 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $303 −$290 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $207 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $132 +$65 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $384 +$180 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $517 −$78 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $644 +$160 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $639 +$115 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $261 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $260 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $258 +$190 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $521 +$282 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $264 −$254 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $391 +$205 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $312 +$226 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $436 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $310 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $235 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $179 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $321 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $173 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $611 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $99 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.71 · official $1.72 (match) · 384 history records