Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68e6…7d5e other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 28% +$1
politics 12% +$1
crypto 10% −$4
weather 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.2% -12.4% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 0% -9.9%
all 37 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage468d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $30 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $64 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 23 $11 $0 -4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
North Korea missile test by June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -39%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -5%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 09 $12 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 30 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $17 +$1 +3%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 22 $18 $0 +1%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 15 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 11? Mar 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 29h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $22 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.45 · official $28.45 (match) · 116 history records