Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68e6…e8f5 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-15%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$68
crypto 9% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -35.7% -41.8% 0% 0% -37.8%
≤30d 4 -28.7% -35.5% 0% 0% -24.5%
≤90d 4 -28.7% -35.5% 0% 0% -24.5%
all 6 -30.1% -36.8% 0% 0% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 0% -26.4%
10% -42.8% 0% -33.4%
15% -48.4% 0% -39.9%
20% -53.4% 0% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$20 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage262d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $60 −$3 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 29 $284 −$22 -8%
Epic Games IPO before 2027? Mar 02 $181 −$41 -22%
Ethereum Fusaka upgrade implemented in 2025? Sep 28 $10 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $57 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $57 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $60 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $60 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $61 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 2d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $165 18d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $185 34d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $97 106d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 106d
Epic Games IPO before 2027? SELL No 50¢ $140 106d
Epic Games IPO before 2027? BUY No 54¢ $92 112d
Epic Games IPO before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $30 120d
Epic Games IPO before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $30 120d
Epic Games IPO before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $30 120d
Ethereum Fusaka upgrade implemented in 2025? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 261d
Ethereum Fusaka upgrade implemented in 2025? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 261d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.46 · official $55.46 (match) · 17 history records