Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68e7…e3f6 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+9%) realized +$91 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$66
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.7% -11.0% 23% 17% -16.7%
≤30d 30 -1.7% -11.0% 23% 17% -16.7%
≤90d 30 -1.7% -11.0% 23% 17% -16.7%
all 30 -1.7% -11.0% 23% 17% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 17% -16.7%
10% -19.5% 13% -24.7%
15% -27.3% 13% -32.0%
20% -34.4% 10% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Up 82¢ 81¢ $80 $79 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Down 33¢ 18¢ $40 $23 −$17 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $138 −$38 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 30? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 28? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 29? Jun 26 $5 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $105 −$100 -95%
HYPE Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? Jun 25 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$5 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$5 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$5 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +98%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 25 $11 −$4 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 22-28? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $12 +$125 +1069%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 82¢ $81 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 19¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 36¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 43¢ $52 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 15¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? SELL Up 14¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 10¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? SELL Up 8¢ $37 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 10¢ $53 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? SELL Up 9¢ $22 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 19¢ $53 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 0¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 66¢ $37 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 52¢ $31 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 50¢ $125 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 24¢ $42 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 43¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 42¢ $69 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 29¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 30¢ $82 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 17¢ $53 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? SELL No 66¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 30? SELL No 66¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 28? SELL No 45¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28? SELL No 60¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 29? SELL No 70¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? SELL No 62¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27? SELL No 59¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 0¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.20 · official $102.21 (match) · 93 history records