Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

68 0x68e8…c5cb other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$106 (-28%) realized −$141 · open +$35

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip

Net edge-49%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$128per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-49.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-44.0%	-49.3%	50%	50%	-48.0%
≤30d	2	-44.0%	-49.3%	50%	50%	-48.0%
≤90d	2	-44.0%	-49.3%	50%	50%	-48.0%
all	2	-44.0%	-49.3%	50%	50%	-48.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-49.3%	50%	-48.0%
10%	-54.2%	0%	-53.0%
15%	-58.6%	0%	-57.5%
20%	-62.7%	0%	-61.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -44% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$119 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.13 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage

Net worth$170

Realized−$141

Unrealized+$35

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage29d

Avg bet$128

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$135	$170	+$35 (+25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Jun 28	$125	+$15	+12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Jun 28	$119	−$119	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$140	1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	SELL Yes	67¢	$140	1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	25¢	$119	29d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	BUY Yes	57¢	$125	29d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.97 · official $169.97 (match) · 5 history records