Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68e9…845c
crypto · 503 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$999 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$834 · open −$165
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$130
Realized−$834
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses282 / 215
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions5
Markets (closed)497 / 503
History coverage19d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day48.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 5 History 497 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$411
14 days−$695
30 days−$834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 15¢ 34¢ $49 $109 +$60 (+123%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 24¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 34¢ 0¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Team Falcons 39¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage NRG Academy 38¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 26¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 22¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 20¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 25¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 51¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $59 +$72 +122%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 +$29 +91%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 +$32 +64%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $43 −$42 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 +$43 +145%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$36 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $60 +$32 +54%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $81 +$121 +150%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $60 +$17 +29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $57 +$59 +103%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $41 +$44 +107%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 +$26 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $109 −$36 -33%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $36 +$69 +193%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $55 +$40 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $103 −$58 -56%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $66 −$65 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $59 +$47 +81%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $53 −$52 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $44 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $108 −$106 -98%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $36 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $42 −$41 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $49 −$47 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $49 −$47 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$5 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $40 −$38 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$34 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $19 −$18 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$34 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$63 +239%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $45 −$18 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $35 −$34 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$35 +188%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $35 +$25 +72%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 09 $56 +$15 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% −$761
sports 42% −$128
other 1% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 15¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 13¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $14 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $31 1h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 95¢ $131 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $61 2h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $61 3h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $49 3h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $59 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $12 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $60 4h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $30 5h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $50 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $31 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $82 6h
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY PARIVISION 49¢ $43 6h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $72 6h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 13h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $30 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $50 13h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY FURIA 33¢ $37 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 15h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $15 20h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $46 20h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $92 21h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $40 22h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $41 22h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -11.9% -20.3% 45% 44% -14.2%
≤30d 497 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 54% -14.7%
≤90d 497 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 54% -14.7%
all 497 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 54% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 54% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 41% -22.9%
15% -31.6% 27% -30.3%
20% -38.3% 20% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.39 · official $130.39 (match) · 1163 history records