Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68eb…9c40 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%17W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$664per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$20
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$21
crypto 42% +$7
politics 7% +$1
sports 7% +$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 17 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 17 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$840) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses17 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage97d
Avg bet$664
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $854 +$7 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $845 +$9 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $843 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $841 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $840 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? Jun 01 $840 +$1 +0%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 20 $135 $0 +0%
Will "La Brea: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 20 $277 $0 +0%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this w May 20 $426 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 13? May 14 $838 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 06 $837 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? Apr 15 $836 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $835 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on April 8? Apr 09 $206 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on April 8? Apr 09 $628 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? Apr 05 $833 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? Mar 31 $832 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.30 · official $200.30 (match) · 36 history records