Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
68 0x68eb…5b93 other 5 markets active 24h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$752 (+60%) realized +$752 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$762
7 days+$748
14 days+$748
30 days+$748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$762
world 8% −$14
crypto 1% −$14
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 25% +44.7%
≤30d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 25% +44.7%
≤90d 5 -9.0% -17.7% 40% 20% +43.1%
all 5 -9.0% -17.7% 40% 20% +43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 20% +43.1%
10% -25.6% 20% +29.4%
15% -32.7% 20% +16.9%
20% -39.3% 20% +5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +58% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$384 vs −$11 · ×34.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.97 per $1 lost it wins $22.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$752
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage58d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,048 +$767 +73%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $92 −$5 -6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $100 −$14 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26? Apr 22 $14 −$14 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,048 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $87 29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $92 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $86 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $100 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 98¢ $7 58d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records