Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
68 0x68f2…38b0 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$70 (+31%) realized +$24 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +28.1% +15.9% 67% 67% +31.2%
≤30d 12 +28.1% +15.9% 67% 67% +31.2%
≤90d 12 +28.1% +15.9% 67% 67% +31.2%
all 12 +28.1% +15.9% 67% 67% +31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.9% 67% +31.2%
10% ← realistic here +4.8% 67% +18.6%
15% -5.3% 67% +7.2%
20% -14.6% 58% -3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 35¢ 100¢ $25 $71 +$46 (+186%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$37 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.43 · official $71.39 (match) · 34 history records