Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68f2…9ac5 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$4
other 15% +$1
politics 10% +$1
crypto 7% +$5
sports 4% +$8
weather 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 21 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 21 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 0% -10.1%
all 42 +2.4% -7.4% 48% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 7% -8.6%
10% -16.2% 2% -17.4%
15% -24.3% 2% -25.3%
20% -31.7% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage473d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $40 +$1 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $45 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $135 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -30%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $23 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $36 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $24 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $28 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 11 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $2 $0 -6%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 29 $1 $0 +20%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 28? Mar 29 $24 $0 -0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 28 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 20 $23 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on March 11? Mar 13 $23 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.15 on March 7? Mar 11 $23 $0 +1%
Wild vs. Kraken Mar 06 $8 +$9 +113%
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech Mar 04 $6 $0 +2%
Xavier vs. Butler Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Akron vs. Toledo Mar 04 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $43 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $45 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $40 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $1 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $6 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $33 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $8 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $43 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $43 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $43 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $34 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $11 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $45 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $17 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $24 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $44 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records