Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
68 0x68f2…f9d7 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$175 (-16%) realized −$174 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$420
other 35% +$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +35.1% +22.2% 100% 50% +25.7%
≤30d 2 +35.1% +22.2% 100% 50% +25.7%
≤90d 4 +20.2% +8.8% 75% 50% -26.3%
all 4 +20.2% +8.8% 75% 50% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 50% -26.3%
10% -1.6% 50% -33.3%
15% -11.1% 50% -39.8%
20% -19.8% 50% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$438 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage72d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$17 +69%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 08 $640 −$438 -68%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $300 +$237 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 69¢ $20 21m
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 30m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 33m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 39m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $10 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $15 46h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 20¢ $202 71d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $537 71d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $640 71d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 55¢ $300 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.28 · official $92.28 (match) · 14 history records