Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
68 0x68f7…77e1 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$497 (-46%) realized −$497 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$41
sports 43% −$459
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-53.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -48.3% -53.2% 29% 29% -52.3%
≤30d 7 -48.3% -53.2% 29% 29% -52.3%
≤90d 7 -48.3% -53.2% 29% 29% -52.3%
all 7 -48.3% -53.2% 29% 29% -52.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.2% 29% -52.3%
10% -57.7% 29% -56.8%
15% -61.8% 29% -61.0%
20% -65.5% 29% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$151 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$497
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $243 +$209 +86%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $446 −$440 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $209 −$206 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $61 +$46 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $74 −$73 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $452 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $243 5h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $446 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $18 33h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $19 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $74 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records