Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
68 0x68f8…12c8 sports 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%71W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days+$15
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$115
other 37% −$42
crypto 2% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -2.0% -11.4% 64% 60% -9.0%
≤30d 109 +2.2% -7.5% 65% 61% -7.2%
≤90d 109 +2.2% -7.5% 65% 61% -7.2%
all 109 +2.2% -7.5% 65% 61% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 61% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 42% -16.1%
15% -24.5% 23% -24.2%
20% -31.9% 15% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses71 / 38
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions8
Markets (closed)109 / 117
History coverage8d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $107 $121 +$14 (+13%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 67¢ 76¢ $45 $52 +$7 (+15%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 65¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Under 79¢ 93¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 71¢ 92¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+30%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 62¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score No 45¢ 64¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 75¢ 62¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $40 +$2 +5%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $14 −$3 -20%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 +$8 +55%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $24 +$6 +27%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $26 +$7 +28%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $61 +$12 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $45 +$17 +37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $59 −$12 -20%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $16 +$4 +25%
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $20 +$4 +19%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $15 −$3 -23%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $44 +$12 +28%
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $19 +$4 +20%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $16 −$3 -16%
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $61 +$25 +42%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 +$8 +55%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $19 +$9 +49%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 26 $40 +$12 +31%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $65 +$11 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $76 +$27 +36%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 $0 -3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $106 +$25 +24%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $12 −$7 -58%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 +$13 +50%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 +$14 +54%
Norway vs. France: Second half draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) Jun 26 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $44 +$15 +33%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $38 −$38 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $15 +$3 +23%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 +$5 +36%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $21 +$3 +14%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $25 +$8 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $19 +$18 +92%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $8 +$1 +18%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 +$8 +31%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$11 +206%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $31 +$12 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 16m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 20m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $11 23m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 69¢ $10 24m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 25m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $11 33m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $4 34m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $37 35m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $14 35m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $15 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $25 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 66¢ $35 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $24 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $16 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $83 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $16 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 21¢ $7 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 73¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 73¢ $15 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $25 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $15 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 25¢ $8 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $30 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $16 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.72 · official $273.72 (match) · 245 history records