Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68fc…6d7f other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%29W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$26
other 33% −$13
sports 30% +$34
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +24.2% +12.4% 47% 42% -11.3%
≤30d 62 +24.2% +12.4% 47% 42% -11.3%
≤90d 62 +24.2% +12.4% 47% 42% -11.3%
all 62 +24.2% +12.4% 47% 42% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 42% -11.3%
10% +1.6% 37% -19.8%
15% -8.2% 32% -27.5%
20% -17.2% 27% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses29 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)62 / 71
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 72¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+83%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+193%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 41¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$15 +1420%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$17 +114%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$3 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +200%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +109%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +550%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $8 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 12h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $4 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $4 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 14h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $4 14h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 32h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $4 37h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 37h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 37h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $4 37h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $4 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.15 · official $20.15 (match) · 145 history records