Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x68ff…997e sports 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,096 (-6%) realized −$2,153 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%117W / 124L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$641
7 days+$692
14 days−$10,072
30 days−$10,072
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$2,407
other 30% +$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +13.4% +2.6% 44% 44% +4.3%
≤30d 128 -66.8% -69.9% 13% 13% -62.0%
≤90d 128 -66.8% -69.9% 13% 13% -62.0%
all 241 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 43% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 43% -14.7%
10% -20.9% 40% -22.8%
15% -28.6% 35% -30.3%
20% -35.6% 30% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$114 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$2,153
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses117 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)241 / 244
History coverage174d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Over 39¢ 100¢ $39 $100 +$61 (+156%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 51¢ 48¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $203 +$262 +129%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $309 +$191 +62%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $21 +$161 +785%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $909 +$305 +34%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $305 −$78 -26%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $203 +$148 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $303 +$180 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$261 +510%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $193 −$191 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $83 −$82 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $99 −$98 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $53 +$47 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $145 +$55 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $119 +$81 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $121 +$79 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $133 +$67 +50%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $99 −$98 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $200 +$200 +100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $215 −$212 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $19 −$18 -99%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winn Jun 16 $108 −$10 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-24? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 16 $167 +$22 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 39¢ $40 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $81 7h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $203 19h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8. BUY 11¢ $10 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8. BUY 40¢ $51 23h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 61¢ $309 26h
João Félix: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $51 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $51 28h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,214 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $909 41h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $227 41h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 42h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 42h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $99 2d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $1 2d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $1 2d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $5 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $101 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 62¢ $303 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $193 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 16¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $83 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $99 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $43 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.03 · official $176.03 (match) · 782 history records