Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6901…fc14 crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%18W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,605per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$41
tech 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 21 -0.3% -9.8% 86% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×7.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×45.63 per $1 lost it wins $45.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses18 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage162d
Avg bet$1,605
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 08 $27,065 +$28 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 08 $638 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 21 $4,980 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 20 $852 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? May 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 03 $154 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 20 $154 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $154 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 25 $154 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 08 $153 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 4 Feb 05 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 3 Feb 04 $152 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 02 $151 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 18 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 18 $135 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 13 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $82 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $13 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $37 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $121 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $174 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $123 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $8 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $137 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $3 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $3 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.12 · official $68.12 (match) · 278 history records