Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x6904…dbb6
sports · 304 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$55 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$51 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses160 / 135
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)295 / 304
History coverage99d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 9 History 295 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 55¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 76¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+63%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 81¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 61¢ 61¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 54¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $10 +$5 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $9 +$17 +180%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 28 $3 +$3 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 28 $1 +$4 +291%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 27 $3 +$2 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Saint-Etienne vs. Nice end in a draw? May 27 $1 +$4 +250%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 May 27 $5 +$5 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 27 $8 +$7 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $3 +$2 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch May 26 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $2 +$5 +188%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Wang May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 23 $3 +$3 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 May 23 $2 +$3 +119%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $4 +$2 +55%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 May 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $1 +$6 +388%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 May 22 $3 +$5 +129%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $5 +$4 +86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 May 22 $6 +$4 +65%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 May 22 $7 +$5 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 May 21 $2 +$2 +83%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 May 21 $3 +$2 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 May 21 $3 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% +$29
other 16% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 7m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 14m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 25m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $2 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 6h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 7h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 8h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $3 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $3 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $4 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $4 11h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 26h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 29h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 29h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 31h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 31h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $4 34h
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 44¢ $3 34h
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 44¢ $4 34h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $6 35h
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 70¢ $7 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $2 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 43% -3.3%
≤30d 97 +21.3% +9.7% 57% 57% -2.3%
≤90d 291 +11.7% +1.1% 55% 54% -4.6%
all 295 +10.8% +0.3% 54% 54% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 54% -5.8%
10% -9.3% 53% -14.8%
15% -18.1% 50% -23.0%
20% -26.1% 46% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.52 · official $45.52 (match) · 741 history records