trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 37¢ | 37¢ | $41 | $41 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $43 | −$3 | -8% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $76 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 06 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 03 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 | Jun 28 | $8 | −$3 | -38% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | Jun 12 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Starmer out before July? | Jun 11 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 10 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? | Jun 04 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? | Jun 04 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Jun 02 | $7 | +$1 | +7% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 19 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? | Apr 18 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? | Apr 17 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 15 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? | Apr 14 | $9 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Apr 14 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 11 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 28 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 20% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -1.0% | -10.5% | 38% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -1.0% | -10.5% | 38% | 0% | -10.3% |
| all | 28 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 61% | 0% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 0% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 0% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 0% | -34.0% |